สงครามนิวเคลียร์ ที่มนุษย์ได้สร้างขึ้น

พลอากาศเอกลอร์ด การ์เดน โฆษกกระทรวงกลาโหมประจำพรรคเสรีประชาธิปไตยแห่งสหราชอาณาจักร และผู้แต่งหนังสือเรื่อง Can Deterrence Last ?

ในเชิงทฤษฎีแล้ว อาจทำลายความรุ่งเรืองของมนุษย์ แต่ในทางปฏิบัติ ผมคิดว่าอันตรายดังกล่าวอาจผ่านพ้นไปแล้ว ปัจจุบัน มี จุดที่อาจก่อให้เกิดสงครามนิวเคลียร์อยู่ 3 แห่ง ได้แก่ ตะวันออกกลาง อินเดีย-ปากีสถาน และเกาหลีเหนือ

แน่นอนว่าเกาหลีเหนือเป็นจุดที่น่าวิตกมากที่สุด เนื่อง จากมีกองทัพรูปแบบเก่าพร้อมจะลั่นไกก่อสงครามได้โดยไม่ตั้งใจ แต่ผมอยากที่จะเชื่อว่ายังมีอุปสรรคที่ขัดขวางไม่ให้ใช้อาวุธนิวเคลียร์อยู่ เนื่องจากเราได้พัฒนาระบบระหว่างประเทศที่ยับยั้งการใช้อาวุธนิวเคลียร์

ความเป็นไปได้ที่จะเกิดสงครามนิวเคลียร์ในระดับโลกนั้นต่ำมาก แม้ว่ายังมีความเป็นไปได้ว่าอาจมีประเทศนอกคอก หรือพวกหัวรุนแรงอยู่ก็ตาม

- โอกาสที่จะเกิดสงครามนิวเคลียร์ใน 70 ปีข้างหน้า : เป็นไปได้ต่ำ - ระดับอันตราย : 8

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